Keller @ Large: Latest New Hampshire primary poll has warning for Donald Trump and Republicans
BOSTON - Former President Donald Trump's mounting legal problems don't seem to be affecting his front-runner status in New Hampshire.
A new Emerson College survey shows Trump with a 40-point lead over his nearest challenger, right where he stood in their last poll back in March. But the poll also has warning signs for Trump and his party among a key voter group -- women.
First, the good news for Trump. How strong is the former president within the GOP primary universe in New Hampshire? Among women, a group he lost to Joe Biden by 18 percent in November 2020, Trump runs five points better than he does among men.
But the gender gap that did in Trump three years ago is all over the poll. For instance:
- Popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu has a 61 percent job approval rating among men but is running almost 20 points lower among women, with three in 10 unsure how they feel about him after six-and-a-half years in office.
- And in a potential Biden versus Trump matchup, women give Biden a landslide 12-point edge, while the male vote is a virtual tie.
"Clearly women are more inclined right now to vote for the Democratic candidate," says Neil Levesque, of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, who suggests the relentless stream of Trump legal news is doing no favors for Republicans across the board. "The Republican themes so far in this election, which are clearly dominated so far with the presidential election because it's what's in the headlines every day, are not themes or messages that are necessarily resonating with women voters, and that's a problem."
The poll shows men and women agree that the economy and inflation are the top issues. But there is one topic women rated third out of eight choices while men rated it dead last: abortion access, with nearly four times more women than men citing its importance.
There is plenty of time for candidates to connect with female voters by raising the issues they care about most. But right now it's proving hard for his challengers to interrupt the firehose of news and speculation about Mr. Trump.
And even if and when they do, on issues like abortion, what plays well in a Republican primary seems like tough sledding when the voter universe expands come general election time.
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